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Last 5 league results · 87% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Real Betis vs Barça
2
Real Betis wins
3
Draws
15
Barça wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.25 vs 2.84
Real BetisBarça
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Real Betis
1 2
Barça
Model's most likely score · 8.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
70.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
Real Betis 1-2 Barça 8.4%
Real Betis 1-3 Barça 8.0%
Real Betis 0-2 Barça 6.7%
Real Betis 0-3 Barça 6.4%
Real Betis 1-1 Barça 5.9%

In brief

Third-placed Real Betis host leaders Barça. Both sides arrive in excellent form, and Barça have won their last five. Real Betis have won every home game this season and Barça have won every away game this season. Barça are the league's top scorers and have one of the league's tightest defences. Barça have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Barça clear favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Barça a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Betis vs Barça
Attack strength
1.09 / 1.97
Defence strength
1.03 / 1.25
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Betis win14%
Draw16%
Barça win70%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Real Betis —
Model14.2%
Market16.0%
Difference -1.8 points
Draw —
Model15.5%
Market17.6%
Difference -2.1 points
Barça HIGHER
Model70.0%
Market66.4%
Difference +3.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
7.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.26 HIGHER
Model77.3%
Market73.8%
Difference +3.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.56 LOWER
Model22.4%
Market26.2%
Difference -3.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. RuibalReal BetisKnee Injury
J. FirpoReal BetisGroin Injury
I. LosadaReal BetisInactive
R. BardghjiBarcelonaKnee Injury
F. de JongBarcelonaKnee Injury
A. ChristensenBarcelonaMuscle Injury
RaphinhaBarcelonaMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results