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Recent form

RAY LWLWD
ATH LWWDD
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic
3
Rayo Vallecano wins
4
Draws
13
Athletic wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.30 vs 1.25
Rayo VallecanoAthletic
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de Vallecas, Madrid
StatusCalled off
Prediction
Called off
This match was called off, so there is no result. The score below is the prediction we made before the original kickoff.
Rayo Vallecano
1 1
Athletic
Model's expected scoreline · 12.7% probability of this exact score
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 13:00 BST · LaLiga record #2 2511f87611
Outcome certainty
37.8%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic 12.7%
Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic 10.2%
Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic 9.8%
Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Athletic 8.2%
Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic 7.9%

In brief

Twelfth-placed Rayo Vallecano host tenth-placed Athletic. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten at home and Athletic have won one of their two away games. Rayo Vallecano have one of the league's leakiest defences. Athletic have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic
Attack strength
0.88 / 1.00
Defence strength
1.13 / 1.04
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Rayo Vallecano win38%
Draw27%
Athletic win35%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.4%
Overround
Rayo Vallecano HIGHER
Model37.8%
Market34.8%
Difference +3.0 points
Draw —
Model26.7%
Market28.3%
Difference -1.6 points
Athletic —
Model35.5%
Market36.9%
Difference -1.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.92 LOWER
Model46.8%
Market49.9%
Difference -3.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.91 HIGHER
Model53.2%
Market50.1%
Difference +3.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
Luiz FelipeRayo VallecanoHamstring Injury
A. BatallaRayo VallecanoBroken calfbone
I. BalliuRayo VallecanoAnkle Injury
U. EgiluzAthletic ClubKnee Injury
A. DjaloAthletic ClubInjury
O. SancetAthletic ClubMuscle Injury
N. WilliamsAthletic ClubThigh Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results