Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

OSA LLLDL
SAN LWLLD
Last 5 league results · 7% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Osasuna vs Santander
3
Osasuna wins
0
Draws
3
Santander wins
From 6 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.08 vs 0.95
OsasunaSantander
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio El Sadar, Pamplona
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Osasuna
2 0
Santander
Model's most likely score · 10.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 13:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
63.3%
High
ScorelineProbability
Osasuna 2-0 Santander 10.4%
Osasuna 1-0 Santander 10.0%
Osasuna 2-1 Santander 9.9%
Osasuna 1-1 Santander 9.5%
Osasuna 3-0 Santander 7.2%

In brief

Sixteenth-placed Osasuna host fifteenth-placed Santander. Both sides arrive in poor form. Osasuna have won one of their four home games and Santander have lost every away game this season. Osasuna have one of the league's leakiest defences; Santander have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Osasuna have the longer injury list. The model makes Osasuna favourites. The model gives Osasuna a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Osasuna vs Santander
Attack strength
0.83 / 0.79
Defence strength
1.06 / 0.67
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Osasuna win63%
Draw20%
Santander win16%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Osasuna HIGHER
Model63.3%
Market48.2%
Difference +15.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model20.3%
Market26.2%
Difference -5.9 points
Santander LOWER
Model16.4%
Market25.7%
Difference -9.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.1%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.67 —
Model58.4%
Market57.1%
Difference +1.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.22 —
Model41.5%
Market42.9%
Difference -1.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. HerrandoOsasunaMuscle Injury
A. OrozOsasunaInjury
K. BarjaOsasunaMuscle Injury
A. BonelOsasunaInactive
R. Del CastilloOsasunaMuscle Injury
R. MoroOsasunaMuscle Injury
S. ErikssonRacing SantanderShoulder Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results