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Recent form

MAL DDLLD
RSO DWLWW
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Málaga vs Real Sociedad
5
Málaga wins
5
Draws
7
Real Sociedad wins
From 17 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.40 vs 1.54
MálagaReal Sociedad
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueLa Rosaleda, Malaga
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Málaga
1 1
Real Sociedad
Model's most likely score · 11.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
40.8%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Málaga 1-1 Real Sociedad 11.4%
Málaga 1-2 Real Sociedad 8.8%
Málaga 0-1 Real Sociedad 8.1%
Málaga 2-1 Real Sociedad 8.0%
Málaga 1-0 Real Sociedad 7.4%

In brief

Bottom side Málaga host sixth-placed Real Sociedad. Málaga arrive in poor form and Real Sociedad in good form. Málaga are still looking for a first home win and Real Sociedad have won two of their four away games. Málaga are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Málaga have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Málaga a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Málaga vs Real Sociedad
Attack strength
0.73 / 1.02
Defence strength
0.86 / 0.89
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Málaga win35%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Málaga HIGHER
Model34.7%
Market29.8%
Difference +4.9 points
Draw —
Model24.5%
Market27.1%
Difference -2.7 points
Real Sociedad —
Model40.8%
Market43.0%
Difference -2.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.79 HIGHER
Model56.5%
Market53.2%
Difference +3.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.04 LOWER
Model43.5%
Market46.8%
Difference -3.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. DiarraMalagaCalf Injury
D. MurilloMalagaKnee Injury
A. OchoaMalagaKnee Injury
J. LobeteMalagaKnee Injury
J. CajusteMalagaInjury
J. CruzMalagaInjury
J. SalinasMalagaLoan agreement
A. OdriozolaReal SociedadKnee Injury
J. AramburuReal SociedadMuscle Injury
O. OskarssonReal SociedadRed Card
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results