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Recent form

MAL LDDLL
ESP LDWLL
Last 5 league results · 13% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Málaga vs Espanyol
3
Málaga wins
5
Draws
11
Espanyol wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.13 vs 1.68
MálagaEspanyol
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueLa Rosaleda, Malaga
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Málaga
1 1
Espanyol
We predicted 1-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 08 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · LaLiga record #1 03858d816c
Outcome certainty
50.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Málaga 1-1 Espanyol 11.4%
Málaga 0-1 Espanyol 10.1%
Málaga 1-2 Espanyol 9.6%
Málaga 0-2 Espanyol 8.5%
Málaga 1-0 Espanyol 6.8%

In brief

Final score: Málaga 1-1 Espanyol. Bottom side Málaga hosted fifteenth-placed Espanyol. Both sides arrived in poor form. Málaga were still looking for a first home win and Espanyol had won one of their three away games. Málaga were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Espanyol had much the better of their earlier meetings. Málaga had the longer injury list. The model made Espanyol slight favourites. The model gave Espanyol a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Málaga vs Espanyol
Attack strength
0.76 / 0.99
Defence strength
0.83 / 1.02
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Málaga win26%
Draw24%
Espanyol win50%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.1%
Overround
Málaga LOWER
Model25.6%
Market34.9%
Difference -9.3 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.2%
Market29.8%
Difference -5.6 points
Espanyol HIGHER
Model50.2%
Market35.3%
Difference +14.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.08 HIGHER
Model53.4%
Market45.8%
Difference +7.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.76 LOWER
Model46.6%
Market54.2%
Difference -7.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. DiarraMalagaCalf Injury
D. MurilloMalagaKnee Injury
A. OchoaMalagaKnee Injury
J. LobeteMalagaKnee Injury
J. CajusteMalagaInjury
J. SalinasMalagaLoan agreement
K. GarciaEspanyolHamstring Injury
J. PuadoEspanyolKnee Injury
JofreEspanyolGroin Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results