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Recent form

LEV DWDLL
SEV LDWWL
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Levante vs Sevilla FC
5
Levante wins
5
Draws
10
Sevilla FC wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.31 vs 1.54
LevanteSevilla FC
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Levante
1 2
Sevilla FC
Model's expected scoreline · 9.0% probability of this exact score
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · LaLiga record #10 6c0d009fef
Outcome certainty
42.6%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Levante 1-1 Sevilla FC 11.7%
Levante 1-2 Sevilla FC 9.0%
Levante 0-1 Sevilla FC 8.9%
Levante 2-1 Sevilla FC 7.7%
Levante 1-0 Sevilla FC 7.6%

In brief

Eighteenth-placed Levante host fifth-placed Sevilla FC. Levante arrive in poor form and Sevilla FC in mixed form. Levante have won one of their two home games and Sevilla FC are unbeaten away from home. Sevilla FC have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Sevilla FC a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Levante vs Sevilla FC
Attack strength
0.92 / 0.89
Defence strength
0.78 / 1.11
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Levante win33%
Draw25%
Sevilla FC win43%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.4%
Overround
Levante —
Model32.6%
Market34.6%
Difference -2.0 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.9%
Market28.9%
Difference -4.1 points
Sevilla FC HIGHER
Model42.6%
Market36.5%
Difference +6.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.04 HIGHER
Model54.2%
Market46.8%
Difference +7.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.8 LOWER
Model45.8%
Market53.2%
Difference -7.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. PrimoLevanteShoulder Injury
K. Etta EyongLevanteMuscle Injury
H. SoteloLevanteKnee Injury
MarcaoSevillaMuscle Injury
R. VargasSevillaKnee Injury
L. StassinSevillaMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results