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RAY LWLWD
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
4
Getafe wins
8
Draws
8
Rayo Vallecano wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.31 vs 0.95
GetafeRayo Vallecano
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueColiseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Getafe
1 0
Rayo Vallecano
Model's most likely score · 13.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 18 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
44.7%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Getafe 1-0 Rayo Vallecano 13.6%
Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano 13.0%
Getafe 0-0 Rayo Vallecano 10.4%
Getafe 0-1 Rayo Vallecano 10.0%
Getafe 2-0 Rayo Vallecano 8.9%

In brief

Fourteenth-placed Getafe host thirteenth-placed Rayo Vallecano. Getafe arrive in poor form and Rayo Vallecano in mixed form. Getafe are unbeaten at home and Rayo Vallecano are still looking for a first away win. Getafe are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Rayo Vallecano have one of the league's leakiest defences. Rayo Vallecano have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Getafe a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Attack strength
0.70 / 0.92
Defence strength
1.31 / 0.86
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.05
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Getafe win45%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano win27%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Getafe HIGHER
Model44.7%
Market32.8%
Difference +11.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model28.1%
Market31.3%
Difference -3.2 points
Rayo Vallecano LOWER
Model27.2%
Market35.9%
Difference -8.7 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.59 —
Model39.3%
Market36.6%
Difference +2.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.49 —
Model60.7%
Market63.4%
Difference -2.7 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
JuanmiGetafeKnee Injury
C. UcheGetafeKnee Injury
A. BatallaRayo VallecanoBroken calfbone
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
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