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Recent form

ESP DWLLD
ATL LWWWW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 80% of points taken

Head to head

Espanyol vs Atleti
4
Espanyol wins
7
Draws
9
Atleti wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.11 vs 1.53
EspanyolAtleti
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueRCDE Stadium, Cornella
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Espanyol
1 1
Atleti
Model's most likely score · 12.1% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 13:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
47.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Espanyol 1-1 Atleti 12.1%
Espanyol 0-1 Atleti 10.9%
Espanyol 1-2 Atleti 9.3%
Espanyol 0-2 Atleti 8.4%
Espanyol 1-0 Atleti 7.9%

In brief

Twelfth-placed Espanyol host second-placed Atleti. Espanyol arrive in poor form and Atleti in excellent form, and Atleti have won their last four. Espanyol have won one of their four home games and Atleti have won three of their four away games. Atleti are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have one of the league's tightest defences. Atleti have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Atleti slight favourites. The bookmakers give Atleti a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Espanyol vs Atleti
Attack strength
0.82 / 1.11
Defence strength
0.97 / 1.22
Head-to-head
0.97 / 1.03
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Espanyol win27%
Draw25%
Atleti win47%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
Espanyol HIGHER
Model27.4%
Market22.5%
Difference +4.9 points
Draw —
Model25.5%
Market25.4%
Difference +0.1 points
Atleti LOWER
Model47.1%
Market52.1%
Difference -5.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
5.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.8 LOWER
Model49.1%
Market52.9%
Difference -3.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.02 HIGHER
Model50.9%
Market47.1%
Difference +3.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
K. GarciaEspanyolHamstring Injury
JofreEspanyolGroin Injury
O. VargasAtletico MadridInactive
R. MendozaAtletico MadridInactive
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results