Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

ELC LLDLW
CEL LDDDW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Elche vs Celta
4
Elche wins
2
Draws
6
Celta wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.04 vs 1.59
ElcheCelta
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Elche
0 0
Celta
We predicted 1-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 58m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 13:01 BST · LaLiga record #6 3192a22689
Outcome certainty
50.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Elche 1-1 Celta 11.9%
Elche 0-1 Celta 11.4%
Elche 1-2 Celta 9.5%
Elche 0-2 Celta 9.1%
Elche 1-0 Celta 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Elche 0-0 Celta. Eighteenth-placed Elche hosted fifteenth-placed Celta. Elche arrived in poor form and Celta in mixed form. Elche had lost every home game this season and Celta were still looking for a first away win. Elche had one of the league's leakiest defences; Celta had one of the league's tightest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Celta slight favourites. The model gave Celta a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Elche vs Celta
Attack strength
0.94 / 0.86
Defence strength
0.72 / 1.47
Head-to-head
0.97 / 1.03
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Elche win25%
Draw25%
Celta win50%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.3%
Overround
Elche LOWER
Model24.9%
Market34.2%
Difference -9.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model25.1%
Market29.2%
Difference -4.1 points
Celta HIGHER
Model50.0%
Market36.6%
Difference +13.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.03 —
Model48.9%
Market47.2%
Difference +1.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.81 —
Model51.1%
Market52.8%
Difference -1.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
Y. SantiagoElcheKnee Injury
F. Redondo SolariElcheRed Card
A. AntanonCelta VigoAnkle Injury
J. El AbdellaouiCelta VigoKnee Injury
M. RomanCelta VigoKnee Injury
C. StarfeltCelta VigoInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results