RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD prediction

Recent form

DEP WDLDL

LEV WDLLD

Last 5 league results · 33% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Deportivo vs

Levante

Deportivo wins

Draws

Levante wins

From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.38 vs 0.99

DeportivoLevante

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Estadio de Riazor, La Coruna
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Deportivo

1 0

Levante

Model's most likely score · 12.9% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 15 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

45.9%

Medium

Scoreline	Probability
Deportivo 1-0 Levante	12.9%
Deportivo 1-1 Levante	12.8%
Deportivo 0-0 Levante	9.3%
Deportivo 0-1 Levante	9.2%
Deportivo 2-0 Levante	8.9%

In brief

Eighth-placed Deportivo host eighteenth-placed Levante. Both sides arrive in poor form. Deportivo have won one of their four home games and Levante are still looking for a first away win. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Deportivo slight favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Deportivo vs

Levante

Attack strength

0.72 / 0.77

Defence strength

0.98 / 0.91

Head-to-head

1.02 / 0.97

Injury factor

1.00 / 1.00

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Deportivo win46%

Draw27%

Levante win27%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.0%

Overround

Deportivo —

Model45.9%

Market45.0%

Difference +0.9 points

Draw —

Model27.2%

Market27.5%

Difference -0.4 points

Levante —

Model26.9%

Market27.4%

Difference -0.5 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

4.8%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.91 LOWER

Model42.4%

Market49.9%

Difference -7.5 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.9 HIGHER

Model57.6%

Market50.1%

Difference +7.5 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
P. Aubameyang	Deportivo La Coruna	Knee Injury
M. Casado	Deportivo La Coruna	Collarbone injury
Z. Eddahchouri	Deportivo La Coruna	Wrist Injury
A. Primo	Levante	Shoulder Injury
K. Etta Eyong	Levante	Muscle Injury
H. Sotelo	Levante	Knee Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results