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Recent form

CEL DDDWD
ALA WLLDL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Celta vs Alavés
9
Celta wins
3
Draws
6
Alavés wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.56 vs 1.30
CeltaAlavés
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMunicipal de Balaídos, Vigo
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Celta
1 1
Alavés
Model's most likely score · 11.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 15:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
43.3%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Celta 1-1 Alavés 11.6%
Celta 2-1 Alavés 9.0%
Celta 1-0 Alavés 8.9%
Celta 1-2 Alavés 7.6%
Celta 0-1 Alavés 7.5%

In brief

Ninth-placed Celta host seventh-placed Alavés. Celta arrive in mixed form and Alavés in poor form. Celta have won one of their four home games and Alavés are still looking for a first away win. Celta have conceded the fewest goals in the league. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Alavés a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Celta vs Alavés
Attack strength
0.93 / 0.92
Defence strength
0.86 / 1.06
Head-to-head
1.05 / 0.95
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Celta win43%
Draw25%
Alavés win32%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.2%
Overround
Celta LOWER
Model43.3%
Market47.0%
Difference -3.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.8%
Market27.9%
Difference -3.1 points
Alavés HIGHER
Model31.9%
Market25.1%
Difference +6.8 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
5.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.11 HIGHER
Model54.4%
Market45.2%
Difference +9.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.74 LOWER
Model45.6%
Market54.8%
Difference -9.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. AntanonCelta VigoAnkle Injury
J. El AbdellaouiCelta VigoKnee Injury
M. RomanCelta VigoKnee Injury
C. StarfeltCelta VigoInjury
F. GarcesAlavesSuspended
M. RodriguezAlavesAnkle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results