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Last 5 league results · 100% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Barça vs Getafe
14
Barça wins
5
Draws
1
Getafe wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

3.58 vs 0.52
BarçaGetafe
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueSpotify Camp Nou, Barcelona
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Barça
3 0
Getafe
We predicted 4-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 29m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 18:00 BST · LaLiga record #4 b6ba24db0a
Outcome certainty
90.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
Barça 3-0 Getafe 12.7%
Barça 4-0 Getafe 11.3%
Barça 2-0 Getafe 10.6%
Barça 5-0 Getafe 8.1%
Barça 3-1 Getafe 6.6%

In brief

Final score: Barça 3-0 Getafe. Leaders Barça hosted eleventh-placed Getafe. Barça arrived in excellent form and Getafe in poor form, and Barça had won their last five. Barça had won every home game this season and Getafe had lost every away game this season. Barça were the league's top scorers and had one of the league's tightest defences; Getafe were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Barça had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Barça clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers broadly agreed with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Barça vs Getafe
Attack strength
1.97 / 0.62
Defence strength
1.31 / 1.06
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Barça win90%
Draw6%
Getafe win2%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
4.8%
Overround
Barça —
Model90.0%
Market88.3%
Difference +1.7 points
Draw —
Model6.5%
Market8.0%
Difference -1.5 points
Getafe —
Model2.4%
Market3.7%
Difference -1.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.26 —
Model76.5%
Market74.0%
Difference +2.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.59 LOWER
Model22.3%
Market26.0%
Difference -3.7 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
R. BardghjiBarcelonaKnee Injury
F. de JongBarcelonaKnee Injury
J. GarciaBarcelonaKnee Injury
A. ChristensenBarcelonaMuscle Injury
RaphinhaBarcelonaMuscle Injury
JuanmiGetafeKnee Injury
C. UcheGetafeKnee Injury
A. AbqarGetafeMuscle Injury
M. SatrianoGetafeKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results