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Recent form

ALA WWLLD
ATL WLWWW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 80% of points taken

Head to head

Alavés vs Atleti
2
Alavés wins
5
Draws
11
Atleti wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.19 vs 1.38
AlavésAtleti
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Alavés
1 2
Atleti
We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 14m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 16:00 BST · LaLiga record #3 f2f7a383b7
Outcome certainty
41.4%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Alavés 1-1 Atleti 12.6%
Alavés 0-1 Atleti 10.6%
Alavés 1-0 Atleti 9.1%
Alavés 1-2 Atleti 8.7%
Alavés 0-0 Atleti 7.6%

In brief

Final score: Alavés 1-2 Atleti. Sixth-placed Alavés hosted second-placed Atleti. Alavés arrived in mixed form and Atleti in excellent form, and Atleti had won their last three. Alavés had won three of their four home games and Atleti had won two of their three away games. Alavés had conceded the fewest goals in the league; Atleti were one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Atleti had much the better of their earlier meetings. Alavés had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides. The bookmakers gave Atleti a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Alavés vs Atleti
Attack strength
0.92 / 1.06
Defence strength
1.08 / 1.20
Head-to-head
0.92 / 1.08
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Alavés win32%
Draw26%
Atleti win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.4%
Overround
Alavés HIGHER
Model32.2%
Market22.0%
Difference +10.1 points
Draw —
Model26.4%
Market25.6%
Difference +0.8 points
Atleti LOWER
Model41.4%
Market52.4%
Difference -11.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.86 LOWER
Model47.4%
Market51.5%
Difference -4.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.97 HIGHER
Model52.6%
Market48.5%
Difference +4.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
F. GarcesAlavesSuspended
M. RodriguezAlavesAnkle Injury
V. KoskiAlavesMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results