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RSO WDWLW
DEP WWDLD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs RC Deportivo La Coruña
5
Real Sociedad de Fútbol wins
5
Draws
2
RC Deportivo La Coruña wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.76 vs 1.07
Real Sociedad de FútbolRC Deportivo La Coruña
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueAnoeta, San Sebastian
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
2 1
RC Deportivo La Coruña
Model's expected scoreline · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 15:15 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
53.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1-1 RC Deportivo La Coruña 11.1%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1-0 RC Deportivo La Coruña 10.4%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-1 RC Deportivo La Coruña 9.8%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-0 RC Deportivo La Coruña 9.2%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0-1 RC Deportivo La Coruña 6.3%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs RC Deportivo La Coruña
Attack strength
0.95 / 0.79
Defence strength
0.9 / 0.96
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Sociedad de Fútbol win54%
Draw23%
RC Deportivo La Coruña win23%

Odds comparison — 1x2

6
Bookmakers
6
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Real Sociedad de Fútbol HIGHER
Model53.7%
Market49.0%
Difference +4.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.4%
Market26.9%
Difference -3.4 points
RC Deportivo La Coruña —
Model22.8%
Market24.1%
Difference -1.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
5
Bookmakers
3.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.88 —
Model53.7%
Market51.4%
Difference +2.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.98 —
Model46.2%
Market48.6%
Difference -2.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. OdriozolaReal SociedadKnee Injury
I. ZubeldiaReal SociedadInjury
J. AramburuReal SociedadRed Card
N. CarrilloDeportivo La CorunaAnkle Injury
AngelinoDeportivo La CorunaRed Card

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Anoeta fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:15 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:15 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results