Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

MAL LDDLL
ESP LDWLL
Last 5 league results · 13% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Málaga CF vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
3
Málaga CF wins
5
Draws
11
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.13 vs 1.68
Málaga CFRCD Espanyol de Barcelona
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio La Rosaleda, Malaga
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Málaga CF
1 2
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Model's expected scoreline · 9.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 08 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
50.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Málaga CF 1-1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 11.4%
Málaga CF 0-1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 10.1%
Málaga CF 1-2 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 9.6%
Málaga CF 0-2 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 8.5%
Málaga CF 1-0 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 6.8%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Málaga CF vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Attack strength
0.76 / 0.99
Defence strength
0.83 / 1.02
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Málaga CF win26%
Draw24%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win50%

Odds comparison — 1x2

6
Bookmakers
6
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Málaga CF LOWER
Model25.6%
Market39.1%
Difference -13.5 points
Draw LOWER
Model24.2%
Market29.2%
Difference -5.0 points
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona HIGHER
Model50.2%
Market31.7%
Difference +18.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
4
Bookmakers
3.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.08 HIGHER
Model53.4%
Market46.4%
Difference +7.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.8 LOWER
Model46.6%
Market53.6%
Difference -7.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
F. CaleroMalagaRibs Injury
M. DiarraMalagaCalf Injury
D. MurilloMalagaInjury
A. OchoaMalagaKnee Injury
J. LobeteMalagaKnee Injury
A. AznouMalagaMuscle Injury
H. AbaidaMalagaInactive
J. CajusteMalagaInjury
K. GarciaEspanyolHamstring Injury
J. PuadoEspanyolKnee Injury
O. El HilaliEspanyolRed Card
JofreEspanyolGroin Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Estadio La Rosaleda fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results