Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

SAN WLWLL
VAL LLLWL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Real Racing Club de Santander vs Valencia CF
0
Real Racing Club de Santander wins
2
Draws
2
Valencia CF wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.41 vs 1.21
Real Racing Club de SantanderValencia CF
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueEstadio El Sardinero, Santander
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Real Racing Club de Santander
1 1
Valencia CF
Model's expected scoreline · 12.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
41.5%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Real Racing Club de Santander 1-1 Valencia CF 12.4%
Real Racing Club de Santander 1-0 Valencia CF 10.3%
Real Racing Club de Santander 0-1 Valencia CF 8.8%
Real Racing Club de Santander 2-1 Valencia CF 8.7%
Real Racing Club de Santander 1-2 Valencia CF 7.5%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Valencia CF
Attack strength
0.92 / 0.8
Defence strength
0.89 / 1.07
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Racing Club de Santander win41%
Draw26%
Valencia CF win32%

Odds comparison — 1x2

5
Bookmakers
5
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Real Racing Club de Santander LOWER
Model41.5%
Market48.2%
Difference -6.7 points
Draw —
Model26.1%
Market26.2%
Difference -0.0 points
Valencia CF HIGHER
Model32.4%
Market25.7%
Difference +6.7 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
3
Bookmakers
3.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.76 LOWER
Model48.6%
Market54.6%
Difference -6.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.12 HIGHER
Model51.4%
Market45.4%
Difference +6.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MartinRacing SantanderKnee Injury
S. ErikssonRacing SantanderShoulder Injury
A. AlmeidaRacing SantanderRed Card
S. CanosValenciaKnee Injury
J. CopeteValenciaAnkle Injury
D. FoulquierValenciaInjury
D. LopezValenciaKnee Injury
U. SadiqValenciaMuscle Injury
M. DiakhabyValenciaMuscle Injury
C. TarregaValenciaHamstring Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Estadio El Sardinero fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results