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RMA WLWWL
VIL LLLWW
Last 5 league results · 60% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF
10
Real Madrid CF wins
7
Draws
3
Villarreal CF wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.28 vs 1.18
Real Madrid CFVillarreal CF
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueSantiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Real Madrid CF
2 1
Villarreal CF
Model's expected scoreline · 9.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
61.9%
High
ScorelineProbability
Real Madrid CF 2-1 Villarreal CF 9.6%
Real Madrid CF 1-1 Villarreal CF 8.4%
Real Madrid CF 2-0 Villarreal CF 8.1%
Real Madrid CF 3-1 Villarreal CF 7.3%
Real Madrid CF 1-0 Villarreal CF 7.1%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF
Attack strength
1.49 / 1.27
Defence strength
1.3 / 1.17
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Real Madrid CF win62%
Draw19%
Villarreal CF win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

6
Bookmakers
6
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Real Madrid CF LOWER
Model61.9%
Market75.3%
Difference -13.4 points
Draw HIGHER
Model19.3%
Market14.5%
Difference +4.8 points
Villarreal CF HIGHER
Model18.7%
Market10.2%
Difference +8.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
3
Bookmakers
7.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.24 LOWER
Model67.2%
Market75.3%
Difference -8.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.76 HIGHER
Model32.8%
Market24.7%
Difference +8.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
Eder MilitaoReal MadridHamstring Injury
F. MendyReal MadridHip Injury
RodrygoReal MadridKnee Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results