Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

UNB WDLLL
ELV LWWLD
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

No historical meetings on record between these two clubs.

Expected goals (xG)

1.89 vs 1.56
Union BerlinElversberg
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAn der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Referee Tobias Reichel
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Union Berlin
1 0
Elversberg
We predicted 2-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #4 0d1ecad5ae
Outcome certainty
44.8%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Union Berlin 1-1 Elversberg 10.3%
Union Berlin 2-1 Elversberg 8.8%
Union Berlin 1-2 Elversberg 7.3%
Union Berlin 2-2 Elversberg 6.9%
Union Berlin 2-0 Elversberg 5.6%

In brief

Final score: Union Berlin 1-0 Elversberg. Seventeenth-placed Union Berlin hosted seventh-placed Elversberg. Union Berlin arrived in poor form and Elversberg in mixed form, and Union Berlin had lost their last three. Union Berlin were still looking for a first home win and Elversberg were unbeaten away from home. Union Berlin had one of the league's leakiest defences. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Union Berlin a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Union Berlin vs Elversberg
Attack strength
0.83 / 0.78
Defence strength
0.74 / 0.92
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Union Berlin win45%
Draw24%
Elversberg win31%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Union Berlin HIGHER
Model44.8%
Market40.6%
Difference +4.1 points
Draw —
Model24.0%
Market25.5%
Difference -1.6 points
Elversberg —
Model31.2%
Market33.8%
Difference -2.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.3%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.53 HIGHER
Model67.1%
Market61.3%
Difference +5.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.43 LOWER
Model32.9%
Market38.7%
Difference -5.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
O. BurkeUnion BerlinAchilles Tendon Injury
M. FriedrichUnion BerlinKnock
A. IlicUnion BerlinIllness
A. MarkgrafUnion BerlinKnee Injury
S. NsokiUnion BerlinMuscle Injury
L. SeifertSV ElversbergAnkle Injury
F. OnyekaSV ElversbergFoot Injury
L. SchnellbacherSV ElversbergInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results