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Recent form

UNB DLLLW
BVB WWWWD
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Union Berlin vs Dortmund
4
Union Berlin wins
1
Draws
11
Dortmund wins
From 16 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.11 vs 1.81
Union BerlinDortmund
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBerlin
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Union Berlin
1 1
Dortmund
Model's most likely score · 11.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
52.7%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Union Berlin 1-1 Dortmund 11.9%
Union Berlin 1-2 Dortmund 9.8%
Union Berlin 0-2 Dortmund 8.9%
Union Berlin 0-1 Dortmund 8.7%
Union Berlin 0-0 Dortmund 6.5%

In brief

Sixteenth-placed Union Berlin host second-placed Dortmund. Union Berlin arrive in poor form and Dortmund in excellent form, and Union Berlin won their last game after losing the three before it while Dortmund drew their last game after winning the four before it. Union Berlin have won one of their three home games and Dortmund have won every away game this season. Union Berlin are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and have one of the league's leakiest defences; Dortmund have one of the league's tightest defences. Dortmund have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Dortmund favourites. The bookmakers give Dortmund a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Union Berlin vs Dortmund
Attack strength
0.90 / 1.06
Defence strength
0.97 / 1.55
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Union Berlin win22%
Draw25%
Dortmund win53%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Union Berlin —
Model22.0%
Market20.5%
Difference +1.5 points
Draw —
Model25.2%
Market22.5%
Difference +2.7 points
Dortmund LOWER
Model52.7%
Market57.0%
Difference -4.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.47 LOWER
Model55.8%
Market63.5%
Difference -7.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.56 HIGHER
Model44.2%
Market36.5%
Difference +7.7 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. IlicUnion BerlinIllness
A. MarkgrafUnion BerlinKnee Injury
S. NsokiUnion BerlinMuscle Injury
J. JuranovicUnion BerlinAchilles Tendon Injury
E. CanBorussia DortmundKnee Injury
G. KonstanteliasBorussia DortmundKnee Injury
J. LermaBorussia DortmundMuscle Injury
F. ManeBorussia DortmundMuscle Injury
C. ChukwuemekaBorussia DortmundMuscle Injury
J. RyersonBorussia DortmundRibs Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results