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Recent form

S04 LDWDD
M05 DWLWL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Schalke vs Mainz
11
Schalke wins
5
Draws
4
Mainz wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.70 vs 1.64
SchalkeMainz
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueVeltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Schalke
1 1
Mainz
Model's most likely score · 10.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
38.7%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Schalke 1-1 Mainz 10.9%
Schalke 2-1 Mainz 8.4%
Schalke 1-2 Mainz 8.1%
Schalke 2-2 Mainz 6.9%
Schalke 2-0 Mainz 5.1%

In brief

Twelfth-placed Schalke host eighth-placed Mainz. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Schalke are still looking for a first home win and Mainz have won every away game this season. Schalke are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Schalke have had much the better of their past meetings. Mainz have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Schalke a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Schalke vs Mainz
Attack strength
0.73 / 1.13
Defence strength
0.92 / 1.06
Head-to-head
1.04 / 0.95
Injury factor
1.07 / 0.93
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Schalke win39%
Draw25%
Mainz win36%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Schalke HIGHER
Model38.7%
Market33.3%
Difference +5.4 points
Draw —
Model24.9%
Market26.3%
Difference -1.4 points
Mainz LOWER
Model36.4%
Market40.4%
Difference -4.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.3%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.61 HIGHER
Model64.8%
Market59.2%
Difference +5.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.33 LOWER
Model35.2%
Market40.8%
Difference -5.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. LjubicicFC Schalke 04Knee Injury
P. NebelFSV Mainz 05Muscle Injury
SilasFSV Mainz 05Broken shinbone
D. KohrFSV Mainz 05Foot Injury
S. WidmerFSV Mainz 05Knee Injury
O. RuoppiFSV Mainz 05Knee Injury
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05Hand Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results