Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

SCP WDLLW
VFB DLWLL
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart
0
SC Paderborn wins
1
Draws
2
Stuttgart wins
From 3 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.79 vs 1.73
SC PaderbornStuttgart
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueHome Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Referee Felix Zwayer
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
SC Paderborn
0 2
Stuttgart
We predicted 2-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #3 3e10a6b912
Outcome certainty
39.2%
Low
ScorelineProbability
SC Paderborn 1-1 Stuttgart 10.1%
SC Paderborn 2-1 Stuttgart 8.2%
SC Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart 7.9%
SC Paderborn 2-2 Stuttgart 7.1%
SC Paderborn 3-1 Stuttgart 4.9%

In brief

Final score: SC Paderborn 0-2 Stuttgart. Twelfth-placed SC Paderborn hosted fifteenth-placed Stuttgart. SC Paderborn arrived in mixed form and Stuttgart in poor form. SC Paderborn had won one of their two home games and Stuttgart had lost every away game this season. SC Paderborn were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Stuttgart had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave Stuttgart a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
SC Paderborn vs Stuttgart
Attack strength
0.74 / 1.12
Defence strength
0.97 / 0.87
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

SC Paderborn win39%
Draw24%
Stuttgart win37%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
SC Paderborn HIGHER
Model39.2%
Market19.8%
Difference +19.5 points
Draw HIGHER
Model24.1%
Market20.7%
Difference +3.4 points
Stuttgart LOWER
Model36.7%
Market59.6%
Difference -22.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.36 —
Model68.2%
Market69.0%
Difference -0.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.03 —
Model31.8%
Market31.0%
Difference +0.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
N. Awortwie-GrantSC Paderborn 07Knee Injury
L. EickelSC Paderborn 07Back Injury
T. GayretSC Paderborn 07Knee Injury
S. KlaasSC Paderborn 07Muscle Injury
M. HoffmeierSC Paderborn 07Muscle Injury
J. DiehlVfB StuttgartMuscle Injury
N. NarteyVfB StuttgartMuscle Injury
D. ZagadouVfB StuttgartMuscle Injury
T. TomasVfB StuttgartMuscle Injury
A. Al DakhilVfB StuttgartKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results