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Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

M05 WDWLW
B04 DLWDW
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Mainz vs Leverkusen
4
Mainz wins
3
Draws
13
Leverkusen wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.60 vs 1.77
MainzLeverkusen
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMEWA Arena, Mainz
Referee Max Burda
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Mainz
3 4
Leverkusen
We predicted 2-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #2 b15fa1ea4e
Outcome certainty
41.2%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Mainz 1-1 Leverkusen 10.7%
Mainz 1-2 Leverkusen 8.6%
Mainz 2-1 Leverkusen 7.8%
Mainz 2-2 Leverkusen 6.9%
Mainz 0-2 Leverkusen 5.4%

In brief

Final score: Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen. Sixth-placed Mainz hosted fifth-placed Leverkusen. Mainz arrived in good form and Leverkusen in mixed form. Mainz were still looking for a first home win and Leverkusen were still looking for a first away win. Leverkusen had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers broadly agreed with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Mainz vs Leverkusen
Attack strength
1.01 / 1.16
Defence strength
1.05 / 1.24
Head-to-head
0.93 / 1.07
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Mainz win34%
Draw25%
Leverkusen win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
Mainz —
Model34.2%
Market32.4%
Difference +1.8 points
Draw —
Model24.6%
Market24.9%
Difference -0.3 points
Leverkusen —
Model41.2%
Market42.7%
Difference -1.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.43 —
Model65.5%
Market65.4%
Difference +0.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.71 —
Model34.5%
Market34.6%
Difference -0.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
P. NebelFSV Mainz 05Muscle Injury
SilasFSV Mainz 05Broken shinbone
D. KohrFSV Mainz 05Foot Injury
S. WidmerFSV Mainz 05Knee Injury
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05Hand Injury
O. RuoppiFSV Mainz 05Knee Injury
M. CulbreathBayer LeverkusenFoot Injury
K. EichhornBayer LeverkusenIllness
G. DoueBayer LeverkusenCalf Injury
C. KofaneBayer LeverkusenMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results