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Last 5 league results · 0% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim
8
M'gladbach wins
7
Draws
5
Hoffenheim wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.06 vs 1.89
M'gladbachHoffenheim
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBorussia-Park
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
M'gladbach
1 1
Hoffenheim
Model's most likely score · 8.2% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 16:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
42.2%
Low
ScorelineProbability
M'gladbach 1-1 Hoffenheim 8.2%
M'gladbach 2-1 Hoffenheim 7.7%
M'gladbach 2-2 Hoffenheim 7.3%
M'gladbach 1-2 Hoffenheim 7.1%
M'gladbach 3-1 Hoffenheim 5.3%

In brief

Bottom side M'gladbach host seventeenth-placed Hoffenheim. Both sides arrive in poor form, and M'gladbach have lost their last five. M'gladbach have lost every home game this season and Hoffenheim have lost every away game this season. M'gladbach have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. M'gladbach have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The model gives M'gladbach a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim
Attack strength
0.88 / 0.99
Defence strength
0.81 / 0.91
Head-to-head
1.05 / 0.94
Injury factor
0.93 / 1.07
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

M'gladbach win42%
Draw22%
Hoffenheim win36%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
M'gladbach HIGHER
Model42.2%
Market28.7%
Difference +13.5 points
Draw —
Model22.3%
Market23.4%
Difference -1.1 points
Hoffenheim LOWER
Model35.5%
Market47.9%
Difference -12.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
7.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.37 HIGHER
Model75.5%
Market68.0%
Difference +7.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.91 LOWER
Model24.5%
Market32.0%
Difference -7.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. CastropBorussia MönchengladbachShoulder Injury
E. LeopoldBorussia MönchengladbachKnee Injury
N. KuhnBorussia MönchengladbachMuscle Injury
T. KleindienstBorussia MönchengladbachInjury
F. HonoratBorussia MönchengladbachMuscle Injury
K. ItakuraBorussia MönchengladbachAnkle Injury
A. Hajdari1899 HoffenheimMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results