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B04 LWDWW
SCF WWWDD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 73% of points taken

Head to head

Leverkusen vs Freiburg
9
Leverkusen wins
7
Draws
4
Freiburg wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.34 vs 1.17
LeverkusenFreiburg
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBayArena, Leverkusen
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Leverkusen
2 1
Freiburg
Model's most likely score · 9.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
62.4%
High
ScorelineProbability
Leverkusen 2-1 Freiburg 9.6%
Leverkusen 1-1 Freiburg 9.0%
Leverkusen 2-0 Freiburg 8.2%
Leverkusen 3-1 Freiburg 7.5%
Leverkusen 3-0 Freiburg 6.4%

In brief

Fourth-placed Leverkusen host third-placed Freiburg. Both sides arrive in good form. Leverkusen have won every home game this season and Freiburg are unbeaten away from home. Freiburg are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have conceded the fewest goals in the league. Leverkusen have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Leverkusen favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Leverkusen a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Leverkusen vs Freiburg
Attack strength
1.19 / 1.01
Defence strength
1.25 / 1.16
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Leverkusen win62%
Draw20%
Freiburg win17%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Leverkusen HIGHER
Model62.4%
Market57.0%
Difference +5.4 points
Draw —
Model20.5%
Market22.1%
Difference -1.6 points
Freiburg LOWER
Model17.0%
Market20.9%
Difference -3.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.45 HIGHER
Model68.1%
Market64.4%
Difference +3.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.63 LOWER
Model31.9%
Market35.6%
Difference -3.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. CulbreathBayer LeverkusenFoot Injury
K. EichhornBayer LeverkusenIllness
G. DoueBayer LeverkusenCalf Injury
C. KofaneBayer LeverkusenMuscle Injury
B. OgbusSC FreiburgInjury
B. YilmazSC FreiburgKnock
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results