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Recent form

KOE LWLDL
BMG WLLLL
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

1. FC Köln vs M'gladbach
7
1. FC Köln wins
4
Draws
9
M'gladbach wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.72 vs 1.43
1. FC KölnM'gladbach
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueRheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Referee Florian Badstubner
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
1. FC Köln
2 1
M'gladbach
We predicted 3-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #8 b41c5a7109
Outcome certainty
64.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
1. FC Köln 2-1 M'gladbach 8.3%
1. FC Köln 3-1 M'gladbach 7.6%
1. FC Köln 1-1 M'gladbach 6.7%
1. FC Köln 2-2 M'gladbach 6.0%
1. FC Köln 2-0 M'gladbach 5.8%

In brief

Final score: 1. FC Köln 2-1 M'gladbach. Thirteenth-placed 1. FC Köln hosted bottom side M'gladbach. Both sides arrived in poor form, and M'gladbach had lost their last four. 1. FC Köln were unbeaten at home and M'gladbach had lost every away game this season. M'gladbach had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made 1. FC Köln favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave 1. FC Köln a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
1. FC Köln vs M'gladbach
Attack strength
0.99 / 0.91
Defence strength
0.90 / 0.81
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.01
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

1. FC Köln win64%
Draw18%
M'gladbach win18%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
1. FC Köln HIGHER
Model64.0%
Market45.5%
Difference +18.5 points
Draw LOWER
Model18.2%
Market25.1%
Difference -6.9 points
M'gladbach LOWER
Model17.6%
Market29.5%
Difference -11.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.49 HIGHER
Model78.1%
Market62.9%
Difference +15.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.53 LOWER
Model21.7%
Market37.1%
Difference -15.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. Hubers1. FC KölnKnee Injury
T. Dallinga1. FC KölnKnee Injury
R. Ache1. FC KölnThigh Injury
A. Castro-Montes1. FC KölnMuscle Injury
J. CastropBorussia MönchengladbachShoulder Injury
E. LeopoldBorussia MönchengladbachKnee Injury
T. KleindienstBorussia MönchengladbachInjury
N. KuhnBorussia MönchengladbachMuscle Injury
F. HonoratBorussia MönchengladbachMuscle Injury
K. ItakuraBorussia MönchengladbachAnkle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results