Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Recent form

HSV LLLWW

VFB LWLLW

Last 5 league results · 40% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

HSV vs

Stuttgart

HSV wins

Draws

Stuttgart wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.78 vs 1.98

HSVStuttgart

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

HSV

1 1

Stuttgart

Model's most likely score · 9.0% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

42.5%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
HSV 1-1 Stuttgart	9.0%
HSV 1-2 Stuttgart	8.1%
HSV 2-1 Stuttgart	7.3%
HSV 2-2 Stuttgart	7.2%
HSV 1-3 Stuttgart	5.4%

In brief

Twelfth-placed HSV host eleventh-placed Stuttgart. Both sides arrive in mixed form. HSV have won one of their two home games and Stuttgart have won one of their three away games. Stuttgart have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The model gives HSV a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

HSV vs

Stuttgart

Attack strength

0.77 / 1.21

Defence strength

0.97 / 0.90

Head-to-head

0.94 / 1.06

Injury factor

1.01 / 0.98

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

HSV win35%

Draw23%

Stuttgart win42%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.6%

Overround

HSV HIGHER

Model34.5%

Market25.0%

Difference +9.6 points

Draw —

Model22.9%

Market23.6%

Difference -0.6 points

Stuttgart LOWER

Model42.5%

Market51.5%

Difference -9.0 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

7.1%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.36 HIGHER

Model72.5%

Market68.8%

Difference +3.7 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.99 LOWER

Model27.5%

Market31.2%

Difference -3.7 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
P. Daka	Hamburger SV	Thigh Injury
Z. El Ouahdi	Hamburger SV	Illness
A. Gronbaek	Hamburger SV	Thigh Injury
M. Vuskovic	Hamburger SV	Doping
J. Diehl	VfB Stuttgart	Muscle Injury
N. Nartey	VfB Stuttgart	Muscle Injury
D. Zagadou	VfB Stuttgart	Muscle Injury
T. Tomas	VfB Stuttgart	Muscle Injury
A. Al Dakhil	VfB Stuttgart	Knee Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results