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Recent form

TSG LLLWL
HSV DLLLW
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Hoffenheim vs HSV
8
Hoffenheim wins
3
Draws
7
HSV wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.67 vs 1.03
HoffenheimHSV
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenuePrezero Arena, Sinsheim
Referee Harm Osmers
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Hoffenheim
2 3
HSV
We predicted 3-1 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #5 fe46c2250d
Outcome certainty
71.2%
High
ScorelineProbability
Hoffenheim 2-1 HSV 9.1%
Hoffenheim 2-0 HSV 8.8%
Hoffenheim 3-1 HSV 8.1%
Hoffenheim 3-0 HSV 7.8%
Hoffenheim 1-1 HSV 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Hoffenheim 2-3 HSV. Fourteenth-placed Hoffenheim hosted sixteenth-placed HSV. Both sides arrived in poor form, and HSV had won their last game after losing the three before it. Hoffenheim had won one of their two home games and HSV had lost every away game this season. HSV were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. HSV had the longer injury list. The model made Hoffenheim clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Hoffenheim a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Hoffenheim vs HSV
Attack strength
1.02 / 0.75
Defence strength
0.95 / 0.91
Head-to-head
1.05 / 0.95
Injury factor
1.04 / 0.95
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Hoffenheim win71%
Draw17%
HSV win12%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Hoffenheim HIGHER
Model71.2%
Market66.4%
Difference +4.7 points
Draw —
Model17.1%
Market19.2%
Difference -2.2 points
HSV —
Model11.6%
Market14.3%
Difference -2.7 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.4 HIGHER
Model71.3%
Market67.0%
Difference +4.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.84 LOWER
Model28.5%
Market33.0%
Difference -4.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
Bernardo1899 HoffenheimAchilles Tendon Injury
A. Hajdari1899 HoffenheimMuscle Injury
A. Rossing-LelesiitHamburger SVAnkle Injury
M. VuskovicHamburger SVDoping
P. DakaHamburger SVThigh Injury
A. GronbaekHamburger SVThigh Injury
Z. El OuahdiHamburger SVIllness
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results