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Recent form

SCF WWWWD
S04 LLDWD
Last 5 league results · 87% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Freiburg vs Schalke
10
Freiburg wins
4
Draws
6
Schalke wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.65 vs 0.85
FreiburgSchalke
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEuropa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
Referee Martin Petersen
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Freiburg
2 1
Schalke
We predicted 3-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 17:01 BST · Bundesliga record #9 eda2fe8a30
Outcome certainty
74.8%
High
ScorelineProbability
Freiburg 2-0 Schalke 10.7%
Freiburg 3-0 Schalke 9.4%
Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 9.0%
Freiburg 3-1 Schalke 8.0%
Freiburg 1-1 Schalke 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Freiburg 2-1 Schalke. Third-placed Freiburg hosted eleventh-placed Schalke. Freiburg arrived in excellent form and Schalke in poor form, and Freiburg had drawn their last game after winning the four before it. Freiburg had won every home game this season and Schalke had won one of their two away games. Freiburg were one of the league's highest-scoring sides and had one of the league's tightest defences; Schalke were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Freiburg clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Freiburg a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Freiburg vs Schalke
Attack strength
1.10 / 0.73
Defence strength
1.25 / 0.94
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
0.98 / 1.01
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Freiburg win75%
Draw16%
Schalke win9%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.7%
Overround
Freiburg HIGHER
Model74.8%
Market57.9%
Difference +16.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model16.1%
Market23.8%
Difference -7.7 points
Schalke LOWER
Model8.9%
Market18.3%
Difference -9.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.62 HIGHER
Model67.6%
Market58.6%
Difference +9.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.3 LOWER
Model32.2%
Market41.4%
Difference -9.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. OgbusSC FreiburgInjury
B. YilmazSC FreiburgKnock
D. LjubicicFC Schalke 04Knee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results