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Recent form

SGE DLWDL
KOE WLDLW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
7
Frankfurt wins
6
Draws
7
1. FC Köln wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.28 vs 1.61
Frankfurt1. FC Köln
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueDeutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Frankfurt
2 1
1. FC Köln
Model's most likely score · 8.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 15 Oct, 19:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
52.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Frankfurt 2-1 1. FC Köln 8.5%
Frankfurt 1-1 1. FC Köln 8.2%
Frankfurt 2-2 1. FC Köln 6.9%
Frankfurt 3-1 1. FC Köln 6.5%
Frankfurt 1-2 1. FC Köln 6.0%

In brief

Thirteenth-placed Frankfurt host fourteenth-placed 1. FC Köln. Frankfurt arrive in poor form and 1. FC Köln in mixed form. Frankfurt are still looking for a first home win and 1. FC Köln have lost every away game this season. Frankfurt have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Frankfurt favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Frankfurt a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Attack strength
0.99 / 0.92
Defence strength
0.85 / 0.96
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.00
Injury factor
1.01 / 0.98
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Frankfurt win52%
Draw21%
1. FC Köln win26%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Frankfurt HIGHER
Model52.0%
Market49.0%
Difference +3.0 points
Draw —
Model21.5%
Market23.3%
Difference -1.8 points
1. FC Köln —
Model26.4%
Market27.7%
Difference -1.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.36 HIGHER
Model74.5%
Market68.5%
Difference +6.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.97 LOWER
Model25.4%
Market31.5%
Difference -6.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. NgankamEintracht FrankfurtHamstring Injury
J. MaluzeEintracht FrankfurtIllness
M. PimpongEintracht FrankfurtInjury
T. Hubers1. FC KölnKnee Injury
T. Dallinga1. FC KölnKnee Injury
R. Ache1. FC KölnThigh Injury
A. Castro-Montes1. FC KölnMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results