SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction

Recent form

ELV WWLDL

FCA WWDLD

Last 5 league results · 47% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Elversberg vs

Augsburg

Elversberg wins

Draws

Augsburg wins

From 1 meeting on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.81 vs 1.74

ElversbergAugsburg

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Elversberg

1 1

Augsburg

Model's most likely score · 10.0% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

39.4%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Elversberg 1-1 Augsburg	10.0%
Elversberg 2-1 Augsburg	8.2%
Elversberg 1-2 Augsburg	7.9%
Elversberg 2-2 Augsburg	7.1%
Elversberg 3-1 Augsburg	4.9%

In brief

Ninth-placed Elversberg host sixth-placed Augsburg. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Elversberg have won one of their two home games and Augsburg have won one of their two away games. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Elversberg vs

Augsburg

Attack strength

0.69 / 1.05

Defence strength

0.93 / 0.82

Head-to-head

0.96 / 1.04

Injury factor

1.01 / 0.98

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Elversberg win39%

Draw24%

Augsburg win37%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.4%

Overround

Elversberg —

Model39.4%

Market38.5%

Difference +0.8 points

Draw —

Model23.9%

Market25.1%

Difference -1.2 points

Augsburg —

Model36.7%

Market36.4%

Difference +0.3 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

7.0%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.43 HIGHER

Model68.7%

Market65.3%

Difference +3.4 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.69 LOWER

Model31.3%

Market34.7%

Difference -3.4 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
L. Seifert	SV Elversberg	Ankle Injury
F. Onyeka	SV Elversberg	Foot Injury
T. Breithaupt	FC Augsburg	Toe Injury
S. Mounie	FC Augsburg	Injury
N. Banks	FC Augsburg	Knee Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results