Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen prediction

Recent form

BVB WWWWW

SVW LLWDW

Last 5 league results · 100% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Dortmund vs

Bremen

Dortmund wins

Draws

Bremen wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.55 vs 0.82

DortmundBremen

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Referee	Christian Dingert
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Dortmund

2 2

Bremen

We predicted 3-1 WRONG RESULT

LOCKED 23h 29m before kickoff · 08 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · Bundesliga record #1 195d01a4ef

Outcome certainty

73.9%

High

Scoreline	Probability
Dortmund 2-0 Bremen	11.1%
Dortmund 3-0 Bremen	9.5%
Dortmund 2-1 Bremen	9.2%
Dortmund 1-0 Bremen	8.0%
Dortmund 1-1 Bremen	7.9%

In brief

Final score: Dortmund 2-2 Bremen. Leaders Dortmund hosted eighth-placed Bremen. Dortmund arrived in excellent form and Bremen in mixed form, and Dortmund had won their last five. Dortmund had won every home game this season and Bremen were still looking for a first away win. Dortmund had conceded the fewest goals in the league. Dortmund had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Dortmund clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Dortmund a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Dortmund vs

Bremen

Attack strength

1.07 / 0.89

Defence strength

1.42 / 0.99

Head-to-head

1.07 / 0.93

Injury factor

1.01 / 0.98

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Dortmund win74%

Draw17%

Bremen win9%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.7%

Overround

Dortmund HIGHER

Model73.9%

Market70.8%

Difference +3.2 points

Draw —

Model16.8%

Market17.2%

Difference -0.4 points

Bremen —

Model9.1%

Market12.1%

Difference -2.9 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

6.3%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.38 —

Model65.4%

Market67.9%

Difference -2.5 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.93 —

Model34.5%

Market32.1%

Difference +2.4 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
E. Can	Borussia Dortmund	Knee Injury
G. Konstantelias	Borussia Dortmund	Knee Injury
J. Lerma	Borussia Dortmund	Muscle Injury
F. Mane	Borussia Dortmund	Muscle Injury
K. Karetsas	Borussia Dortmund	Illness
C. Chukwuemeka	Borussia Dortmund	Muscle Injury
J. Ryerson	Borussia Dortmund	Ribs Injury
F. Agu	Werder Bremen	Calf Injury
K. Topp	Werder Bremen	Knee Injury
J. Njinmah	Werder Bremen	Thigh Injury
J. Stage	Werder Bremen	Muscle Injury
S. Lynen	Werder Bremen	Hip Injury
M. N'Diaye	Werder Bremen	Groin Injury
S. Alvero	Werder Bremen	Calf Injury
S. Musah	Werder Bremen	Muscle Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results