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Recent form

SVW LWDWD
SCP DLLWL
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Bremen vs SC Paderborn
4
Bremen wins
3
Draws
2
SC Paderborn wins
From 9 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.86 vs 1.15
BremenSC Paderborn
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueWeserstadion, Bremen
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Bremen
1 1
SC Paderborn
Model's most likely score · 11.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
53.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Bremen 1-1 SC Paderborn 11.6%
Bremen 2-1 SC Paderborn 9.8%
Bremen 2-0 SC Paderborn 8.6%
Bremen 1-0 SC Paderborn 8.1%
Bremen 3-1 SC Paderborn 6.1%

In brief

Seventh-placed Bremen host fifteenth-placed SC Paderborn. Bremen arrive in mixed form and SC Paderborn in poor form. Bremen have won every home game this season and SC Paderborn are still looking for a first away win. SC Paderborn are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Bremen have had much the better of their past meetings. Bremen have the longer injury list. The model makes Bremen favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Bremen vs SC Paderborn
Attack strength
0.84 / 0.71
Defence strength
0.92 / 1.00
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
0.95 / 1.04
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bremen win53%
Draw25%
SC Paderborn win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.6%
Overround
Bremen —
Model53.0%
Market52.8%
Difference +0.3 points
Draw —
Model24.7%
Market23.8%
Difference +1.0 points
SC Paderborn —
Model22.2%
Market23.5%
Difference -1.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.52 LOWER
Model57.8%
Market61.5%
Difference -3.7 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.43 HIGHER
Model42.2%
Market38.5%
Difference +3.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
F. AguWerder BremenCalf Injury
K. ToppWerder BremenKnee Injury
J. NjinmahWerder BremenThigh Injury
J. StageWerder BremenMuscle Injury
S. AlveroWerder BremenCalf Injury
S. LynenWerder BremenHip Injury
S. MusahWerder BremenMuscle Injury
M. N'DiayeWerder BremenGroin Injury
N. Awortwie-GrantSC Paderborn 07Knee Injury
L. EickelSC Paderborn 07Back Injury
T. GayretSC Paderborn 07Knee Injury
S. KlaasSC Paderborn 07Muscle Injury
M. HoffmeierSC Paderborn 07Muscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results