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FCB WDWWD
RBL WLWLW
Last 5 league results · 73% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Bayern vs RB Leipzig
11
Bayern wins
7
Draws
2
RB Leipzig wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

3.79 vs 1.06
BayernRB Leipzig
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAllianz Arena, Munich
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Bayern
3 1
RB Leipzig
Model's most likely score · 7.5% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
83.2%
High
ScorelineProbability
Bayern 3-1 RB Leipzig 7.5%
Bayern 4-1 RB Leipzig 7.1%
Bayern 3-0 RB Leipzig 7.1%
Bayern 4-0 RB Leipzig 6.7%
Bayern 2-1 RB Leipzig 6.0%

In brief

Second-placed Bayern host fifth-placed RB Leipzig. Both sides arrive in good form. Bayern have won every home game this season and RB Leipzig have lost every away game this season. Bayern are the league's top scorers and have one of the league's tightest defences; RB Leipzig are one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Bayern have had much the better of their past meetings. RB Leipzig have the longer injury list. The model makes Bayern clear favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Bayern a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Bayern vs RB Leipzig
Attack strength
1.78 / 1.18
Defence strength
1.42 / 1.21
Head-to-head
1.12 / 0.88
Injury factor
1.04 / 0.95
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bayern win83%
Draw10%
RB Leipzig win6%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Bayern HIGHER
Model83.2%
Market76.4%
Difference +6.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model9.5%
Market13.7%
Difference -4.2 points
RB Leipzig LOWER
Model5.7%
Market9.9%
Difference -4.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
7.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.14 —
Model84.6%
Market81.9%
Difference +2.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 5.12 LOWER
Model13.8%
Market18.1%
Difference -4.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. BuchmannBayern MünchenKnee Injury
J. MusialaBayern MünchenMuscle Injury
C. BaumgartnerRB LeipzigThigh Injury
A. OuedraogoRB LeipzigShoulder Injury
M. GuiuRB LeipzigHamstring Injury
A. KoneRB LeipzigOff the roster
L. ZingerleRB LeipzigOff the roster
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results