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FCA LWWDL
FCB WWDWW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Augsburg vs Bayern
3
Augsburg wins
2
Draws
15
Bayern wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.22 vs 3.11
AugsburgBayern
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueWWK Arena, Augsburg
Referee Sven Jablonski
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Augsburg
2 2
Bayern
We predicted 1-3 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 15:01 BST · Bundesliga record #6 ca246fe43b
Outcome certainty
74.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
Augsburg 1-3 Bayern 8.1%
Augsburg 1-2 Bayern 7.8%
Augsburg 0-3 Bayern 6.6%
Augsburg 0-2 Bayern 6.4%
Augsburg 1-4 Bayern 6.3%

In brief

Final score: Augsburg 2-2 Bayern. Fourth-placed Augsburg hosted second-placed Bayern. Augsburg arrived in mixed form and Bayern in excellent form. Augsburg were unbeaten at home and Bayern were unbeaten away from home. Augsburg were one of the league's highest-scoring sides; Bayern were the league's top scorers and had one of the league's tightest defences. Bayern had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Bayern clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave Bayern a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Augsburg vs Bayern
Attack strength
1.02 / 1.64
Defence strength
0.90 / 1.51
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
0.97 / 1.03
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Augsburg win11%
Draw15%
Bayern win74%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Augsburg —
Model11.0%
Market8.2%
Difference +2.8 points
Draw HIGHER
Model14.6%
Market11.2%
Difference +3.3 points
Bayern LOWER
Model74.0%
Market80.6%
Difference -6.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
6
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.12 —
Model80.2%
Market83.0%
Difference -2.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 5.51 —
Model19.4%
Market17.0%
Difference +2.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. BreithauptFC AugsburgToe Injury
S. MounieFC AugsburgInjury
S. SusoFC AugsburgMuscle Injury
N. BanksFC AugsburgKnee Injury
T. BuchmannBayern MünchenKnee Injury
J. MusialaBayern MünchenMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results