Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

M05 WDWLW
B04 DLWDW
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4
1. FSV Mainz 05 wins
3
Draws
13
Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.73 vs 1.64
1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueMewa Arena, Mainz
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
1. FSV Mainz 05
2 2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Model's expected scoreline · 6.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 14:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
39.4%
Low
ScorelineProbability
1. FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 10.7%
1. FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8.4%
1. FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8.0%
1. FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6.9%
1. FSV Mainz 05 2-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5.1%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attack strength
1.01 / 1.16
Defence strength
1.05 / 1.24
Head-to-head
0.93 / 1.07
Injury factor
1.04 / 0.95
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

1. FSV Mainz 05 win39%
Draw25%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win36%

Odds comparison — 1x2

6
Bookmakers
6
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
1. FSV Mainz 05 HIGHER
Model39.4%
Market33.9%
Difference +5.5 points
Draw —
Model24.7%
Market25.1%
Difference -0.4 points
Bayer 04 Leverkusen LOWER
Model35.9%
Market41.0%
Difference -5.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
4
Bookmakers
6.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.46 —
Model65.4%
Market64.1%
Difference +1.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.6 —
Model34.6%
Market35.9%
Difference -1.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
P. NebelFSV Mainz 05Muscle Injury
SilasFSV Mainz 05Broken shinbone
D. KohrFSV Mainz 05Foot Injury
S. WidmerFSV Mainz 05Knee Injury
R. ZentnerFSV Mainz 05Hand Injury
M. CulbreathBayer LeverkusenInjury
K. EichhornBayer LeverkusenIllness
G. DoueBayer LeverkusenMuscle Injury
N. TellaBayer LeverkusenInjury
V. BonifaceBayer LeverkusenOff the roster
J. HofmannBayer LeverkusenOff the roster
I. MazaBayer LeverkusenIllness
T. OermannBayer LeverkusenOff the roster

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Mewa Arena fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results