We’re genuinely pleased to be getting started. Edge Eleven has been a lot of work, and it’s a real thrill to finally have somewhere to put it all: Premier League predictions, the odds they’re up against, and a public record of how every call turned out.
What Edge Eleven is
The idea is simple, and it’s in the tagline: smart stats, bet better. Every matchweek our model reads the fixtures, the form, the head-to-head history and the injury news, then puts a probability on a home win, a draw and an away win, along with a predicted score. We then line those numbers up against what the bookmakers are offering. Where the two disagree, that’s what we call value: something worth a second look, never a promise.
We show our workings, including the misses
Anyone can post a winning tip after the final whistle. So every prediction here is locked 24 hours before kickoff, with a timestamp, in a log built so that an after-the-fact edit would show up. The Track Record shows how each one landed, good and bad.
And it includes the uncomfortable parts. At the time of writing our model has settled 26 matches. On the measure that matters most it’s only about level with a coin flip, and it’s behind the bookmakers on the matches where we saved their prices. That’s a very small sample, far too small to judge the model either way, but we’d much rather you see it than not.
We’re already learning from it. This week we found the model was putting too much faith in a handful of early-season games, tested a fix against about 1,800 past matches, and put it in place. Every prediction now records which version of the model made it, so old and new results are never blended into one flattering number.
Two accumulators every week
The Acca page has two accumulators each week, built from the bookmakers’ own prices across 13 leagues. There’s a most likely one that still at least doubles your stake, and a risky one with a much bigger payout. We show the chance each one lands, and this week those were about 1 in 3 and 1 in 12. We won’t call anything a dead cert, because there’s no such thing, and an accumulator only wins if every leg does.
What to expect here
Every week we’ll be back with:
- The fixtures ahead: the games our model likes, where it and the bookmakers disagree, and what’s worth watching.
- The football news that matters: injuries, form and the stories that could move a match.
- Model notes: whenever we change something, and what the numbers say about whether it worked.
A word on betting
Edge Eleven is a personal stats project, not a licensed tipster service, and nothing here is betting advice. Predictions are best guesses, and models are wrong often. You must be 18 or over to gamble. Only stake what you can afford to lose, and if it ever stops being fun, free confidential support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
Thanks for being here at the start. We’ll see you before the next round of fixtures.
The Edge Eleven team